The pandemic underway is putting the Italian government in a tight spot, which inevitably has to take cover and try to save what can be saved by closing the regions at risk, but what are they and why are they?
The regions at risk for the coronavirus
Prime Minister Conte has been busy discussing the details of the next DPCM in the last few hours. The document within it should include fundamental information for the success of the contrast to the Covid-19. The risk to be avoided is to close the entire boot as in the months of March, April and May. Avoid a lockdown at any cost; Conte, however, has the solution and proposes in extremis the closure of the regions at risk. But how is the risk of a region assessed?
The risk of a region is assessed on the basis of the RT level between 1,2 and 1,5. This factor in fact indicates the level of contagiousness of the population. When the level exceeds the recommended threshold included in the numbers above, then the areas included in the data analysis fall into risk areas. To make the sum of the final damage, it is also the proportion with the beds available. Whether for intensive care or for simple hospitalization, these too must fall within a series of parameters in view of future predictions to combat the pandemic.
Covid-19: Piedmont, Lombardy and Calabria at risk of closure
The regions at risk of closure are now under full discussion within the negotiations between the Council of Ministers and the Technical Scientific Committee. It would seem clear enough from the latest rumors that Piedmont, Lombardy and Calabria are close to closure.
The other regions are also at risk
In a program of about one hundred and thirty-six pages drawn up by the technical-scientific committee, three levels of danger before the closure of the regions were also identified. Campania, Sicily and Liguria are now approaching the limit threshold. According to data estimates, all the other regions will follow by the end of November. Italy is not going through an easy time and if the count is made between available beds in intensive care and potential infections between regions, the localized lockdown does not seem an impossible solution. The idea would be to close the areas at risk for at least three weeks, thus compromising the spread of the virus.
If necessary, for the regions at risk, measures can be taken from week to week
The lockdown thus becomes the specter of different regions that find themselves compressed in a grip of indecision. But the truth is that the bugbear of winter flu hovers in future and provisional data. The arrival of the winter season and the flu will unfortunately negatively enrich the data count on the places occupied in intensive care. And this is why the conditions of the areas at risk will be monitored week by week, choosing, where necessary, even for stringent measures ad hoc for certain areas.
