Covid, the Rt index drops but the epidemic is always in a delicate phase

According to the data provided by the control room, lRt index is decreasing but the epidemic is still going through a very delicate phase. In the period 30 December 2020 - 12 January 2021, the mean transmissibility index Rt calculated on symptomatic cases was equal to 0,97 (range 0,85-1,11). Finally decreasing, therefore, after five weeks of growth.

 The data is in the monitoring draft of the Higher Institute of Health-Ministry of Health. Meanwhile, the data collected in the last 24 hours recorded 13.633 new positive cases (yesterday 14.078). The new deaths are 472 (yesterday 521) while the discharged healed are 27.676 (yesterday 20.519). Overall, the positive cases in our country are 502.053 (yesterday 516.568).

Decreases the risk of an uncontrolled epidemic

According to the experts "there is a decrease in the risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic, mainly due to a decrease in the probability of transmission di COVID-2. A situation that has matured in a context in which the impact on welfare services remains high in most of the territories ". Overall, there are four regions and autonomous provinces with a classification of high risk.

Another 11 are at moderate risk (including five at high risk of high risk progression in the next few weeks) e you are low risk. Two regions (Sicily and Puglia) have a punctual Rt greater than 1 even in the lower limit, therefore compatible with a type 2 scenario. The others have a punctual Rt compatible with a type one scenario. One region (Umbria) and one autonomous province (Bolzano) were classified at high risk for the third consecutive week. This provides for specific measures to be taken at the provincial and regional level.

Restrictive and incisive measures

The epidemic remains in a delicate phase, we read in the draft monitoring. The report also highlights that a new rapid increase in the number of cases in the coming weeks is possible. This is if the mitigation measures are not strictly maintained both at national and regional level.

In fact, this trend at the national level underlies strong inter-regional variations. In particular, in some regions where the absolute number of hospitalized patients in a critical area and the relative impact, combined with the high incidence, require further and incisive restrictive measures.